It's Not The Number Of Winners That Make You Money

Do you know anyone who regularly wins money betting on racehorses? I know of quite a few myself and even though they do win not all of them make a profit. There is a world of difference between how often you win and making a profit on your betting.

 

Take Eric Sergeant for example. He hits an average 61% winners and sometimes collects money several times a week from his local Labrooke betting shop. Trouble is most of his winners are odds on and never more than 15/8. His average odds are just a fraction above 1/2. Overall the bookie pays him less than 65% the total Eric hands over in stake money. That's a whopping great loss of 35%+.

 

Eric's bets prove my maxim, "it's not the number of winners that make you money, it's the odds of the winners!" Get the prices right and your profits are guaranteed.

 

One guy that has struck a good balance is John Smith. His method of betting in handicap races gives him a winning strike rate of 21%; or 21 winners in every 100 bets. Not a brilliant achievement and he is the first to admit that. But he is not bothered by the low percentage of winners, no sir. Why? Simple, he makes a tidy profit on his bets.

 

John's winning bets average 5/1 and that gives him a return of 126 point for every 100 points staked; a clear profit of 26 points. That my friend is a 26% return on your money, where else can you get such a return? If you know, point me in the right direction.

 

Okay this is all well and good, but how does it help you to make money from your betting? Well, it gets you in touch with reality by pointing you in the right direction. You know, you don't need 70 or 80 winners in every hundred bets to make a profit on your outlay. You just have to get the odds right to make money from playing the horses.

 

Now you know the secret to making your betting pay, you just have to put it into practice. Maybe you are already half way there and don't realise it. It could be your current selection system or method, that is losing you money, can be turned around and pay for itself.

 

Have you considered the way you use your selections process. Do you follow good money management and get the most from all your bets? You need to set up a betting bank and determine how you will utilise that money to best advantage. Namely the staking plan you will employ.

 

Then you need to analyse your selections, what are the average odds, how much are you losing? With this information you could go from adding to the bookies bank balance to filling your own. The first step is to know how many points you are losing, then to work out what odds your winners need to be to turn a profit.

 

For example, you could have a system that gives you 300 bets a year and returns 270 points; losing you 30 points. To make this system profitable you will need to increase those returns by at least 31 points. You can do this without picking any more winners and without chasing your losses. (If you are not already doing the one thing I am about to suggest).

 

Increasing your winnings without risking any more money you just have to get better odds about your winners. Simple, if you have the time and are prepared to put in the work. That's right, you have to put in the work to make your money. It is not just going to drop in your lap, though I for one wish it would; being a lazy git.

 

Getting better odds is simple, just check out all the bookies and betting exchanges. There is often a point or two extra to be had on most horses at some point while the markets are open. Just keep a sharp eye on them. The down side to this is the need to have accounts with them all. Not very practical if you don't have a fortune to bet with.

 

You can of course open accounts with two or three bookies and maybe Betfair and Betdax. That will suffice. The betting exchanges are a must as the odds are often much higher than the bookmakers. The plus side of the exchanges is being able to ask for the price you want, (be realistic). You can place your bets and go about your day. If your odds and stake are matched your bet is on, otherwise it is cancelled and you keep your stake.

 

The downside of asking for a price is your bet is not always going to be matched and you can miss winners. That may be an issue with you, but look at it this way. Betting at odds lower than you need to make a profit overall, is tantamount to accepting poor value. Therefore unmatched bets mean you do not bet at poor value odds, this in itself is a bonus as getting value is the only sure-fire way to long term profit.

 

To take advantage of asking for a price you need to know the odds you want. This will be worked out from knowing your selections, the average starting price, number of winners and how much profit you are realistically prepared to accept.

 

Say you have a system that gives you 300 bets a year and gives you 60 winners at average odds of 7/2, (4.5). You want to make money and are will be happy with a 10% profit. What odds do you need about your winners?

 

Well, you are looking for a return of 330 points, 300 plus 10%. At the current odds of 7/2 you will lose 30 points, so you need to get a better return than this. (Okay, you knew that). You actually need odds of 9/2 to get your return 330 points and make 30 points profit. This is worked out by adding 10% to your outlay, 300 points plus 30 equals 330 points. Then you divide this by the number of winners you expect, (that will be 60 then; 330/60 equals 5.5 or 9/2..

 

As you can see you only need to get one point more for your winners to make the system pay. Easy to achieve if you put in the time and effort. Of course you can only estimate the number of bets, winners and the odds you will get. But it is an educated guess based on your usual betting practices be it following systems, methods or tips. You will also have to factor in the Betfair percentage if you use their exchange. Alternatively you can absorb the cost.

 

That's me all preached out for today. The next sermon is on picking winners, just in case you are not having enough success in that department. Check back tomorrow, who knows you might find something you can use. At the very least you make derisory comments about my flawed thinking...

 

Until the a.m.,

Jamespa